The Most Explosive Year-End Closer in UFC History
The stage is set for the most anticipated Mixed Martial Arts event of the year. On Sunday, December 7, 2025, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, will host UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2. This is no ordinary card; it is the grand finale of the UFC’s Pay-Per-View schedule for 2025, and the promotion has stacked the deck with two championship fights and a series of matchups that will define the future of multiple divisions.
More than just a night of fights, UFC 323 presents an undeniable narrative theme: a generational clash of the “Old Guard vs. The New Generation.” In nearly every main card bout, an established veteran, former champion, or current division king faces a young, hungry, rising contender.
From former two-division champion Henry Cejudo (38) facing undefeated prospect Payton Talbott (27), to former Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz (42) trying to halt the demolition man Bogdan Guskov, and beloved former champ Brandon Moreno facing Japanese prodigy Tatsuro Taira.
This deliberate structure creates a high-volatility betting landscape. Will veteran experience and cunning prevail, or will age and wear finally take their toll, allowing the new wave of talent to take over?
This expert betting report will break down every fight, analyze the stylistic data, and uncover where the true value lies in the Craftbet.la betting markets.
How to Bet on UFC 323: A Quick Guide from Craftbet.la
For those new to MMA betting or looking for a refresher, the UFC offers multiple ways to invest in the action. Here are the core markets you will find on Craftbet.la for UFC 323.
Moneyline (Match Winner)
The simplest and most popular bet: picking who will win the fight. Odds are presented with a negative sign (-) for the favorite and a positive sign (+) for the underdog.
The Favorite (-): Indicates how much you need to wager to win $100.
The Underdog (+): Indicates how much you will win on a $100 wager.
Craftbet.la Example (UFC 323):
Merab Dvalishvili (-370): The heavy favorite. You must bet $370 to make a $100 profit on his victory.
Petr Yan (+270): The underdog. A $100 bet on Yan returns a $270 profit if he pulls off the upset.
Total Rounds (Over/Under)
Here, you aren’t betting on the winner, but the duration. Craftbet.la will set a line, such as “Over 4.5 Rounds” for a 5-round title fight.
Over 4.5: You need the fight to enter the final 2:30 minutes of the fifth round or go to a decision.
Under 4.5: You are predicting a finish (KO, Submission, DQ) before that point.
Method of Victory (Prop Bets)
These are high-value markets requiring specificity. You bet not just on who wins, but how they win:
By KO/TKO or DQ
By Submission
By Decision (Unanimous or Split)
Craftbet.la Example: Alexandre Pantoja’s Moneyline is -225 (expensive). However, Pantoja is a submission specialist. Betting “Alexandre Pantoja to Win by Submission” might offer attractive odds like +200, yielding a significantly higher payout.
Expert Focus: Main Event – Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan 2 (Bantamweight Championship)
Fight Context: This is the rematch of their dominant March 2023 encounter. In that bout, Merab Dvalishvili dismantled Yan over five rounds, winning a 50-45 decision while breaking the UFC record for most takedown attempts in a single fight (49).
Now, the roles are reversed. Dvalishvili is the undisputed champion, having defended his title three times in 2025 (against Umar Nurmagomedov, Sean O’Malley, and Cory Sandhagen). He seeks a historic milestone: becoming the first champion in UFC history to defend a title four times in a single calendar year. Petr Yan, the former champion, has rebuilt his path with three consecutive decision wins since the loss to Merab.
Table 1: Tale of the Tape – Dvalishvili vs. Yan
| Metric | Merab Dvalishvili (Champ) | Petr Yan (#3 Contender) |
| Record | 21-4 | 19-5 |
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Reach | 68″ | 67″ |
| Sig. Strikes / Min (SLpM) | 4.33 | 5.12 |
| Striking Defense | 56% | 58% |
| Avg. Takedowns (per 15m) | 6.40 | 1.58 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 37% | 48% |
| Takedown Defense | 82% | 85% |
| Moneyline Odds | -370 (Favorite) | +270 (Underdog) |
Stylistic Analysis – The Dvalishvili Path:
Dvalishvili’s nickname, “The Machine,” is perfect. He wins through supernatural cardio and relentless wrestling pressure. His 14-fight win streak includes an elite list: Aldo, Cejudo, Yan, O’Malley, and Sandhagen. His weapon isn’t a single takedown; it’s chain wrestling. He holds the UFC record for most takedowns in history (117). He doesn’t need every takedown to succeed; he uses them to force reactions, exhaust opponents against the fence, and bank rounds.
Stylistic Analysis – The Yan Path:
“No Mercy” is one of the most technically proficient and brutal boxers in divisional history. His 5.12 SLpM with 54% accuracy and elite 85% takedown defense make him a stylistic nightmare for most. In their first fight, his takedown defense held up, but he was overwhelmed by the sheer volume of attempts (49).
Expert Betting Analysis & Prediction:
The current odds of -370 for Dvalishvili represent a value trap. The market is pricing this fight based entirely on an anomalous performance of 49 takedown attempts—an effort statistically unlikely to be replicated.
The biggest factor the market ignores is Dvalishvili’s unprecedented pace. He is attempting his fourth title defense of 2025. This is a grueling schedule against absolute elite competition. It invites physical and mental burnout.
Petr Yan doesn’t need to win a wrestling match; he needs to win a fight. With his 85% takedown defense and previous experience, he only needs minor adjustments (punishing entries with elbows and short punches) to make Dvalishvili pay a higher price for every attempt. Yan, fresher and rebuilt, has the finishing power (7 KOs) that Dvalishvili (record holder for decision wins) simply does not possess.
Expect Dvalishvili to press early, but as the fight progresses, Yan’s adjustments and the champion’s accumulated fatigue from a brutally active year will take over. Yan’s superior boxing shines in the championship rounds.
Best Bet: Petr Yan (Moneyline) +270
Secondary Bet: Fight Goes to Decision OR Over 4.5 Rounds.
Section 4: Expert Focus: Co-Main Event – Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight Championship)
Fight Context: A classic David vs. Goliath, if David had record-breaking striking volume. Veteran champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja defends against 24-year-old phenomenon Joshua “The Fearless” Van. It is Pantoja’s chaos and submission threat vs. Van’s historic boxing volume.
Table 2: Tale of the Tape – Pantoja vs. Van
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja (Champ) | Joshua Van (#1 Contender) |
| Record | 30-5 | 15-2 |
| Age | 35 | 24 |
| Reach | 67″ | 65″ |
| Sig. Strikes / Min (SLpM) | 4.36 | 8.86 (UFC Record) |
| Strikes Absorbed / Min | 3.88 | 6.36 |
| Striking Defense | 49% (Low) | 58% |
| Avg. Submission (per 15m) | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Takedown Defense | 69% | 81% |
| Moneyline Odds | -225 (Favorite) | +188 (Underdog) |
Stylistic Analysis:
Pantoja is a chaotic finisher with 12 submission victories. His greatest attribute is his legendary durability—he has never been finished in 35 pro fights. His strategy: walk through fire, absorb damage to secure a clinch, and hunt the neck. Joshua Van is a storm of fists. He holds the all-time UFC record for SLpM (8.86). His crucial stat here is his solid 81% takedown defense.
Expert Betting Analysis & Prediction:
Pantoja at -225 makes him one of the most vulnerable favorites on the card. His fundamental strategy of “absorbing damage to close distance” is the worst possible tactic against the highest-volume striker in promotion history.
The math is brutal: Pantoja has a striking defense of only 49%. He is statistically programmed to absorb over 4 significant strikes per minute from Van. This is an unsustainable level of damage, even for “The Cannibal.” If Van survives the first seven minutes and stuffs the takedowns (81% TDD), his probability of winning via TKO (accumulated damage) or decision skyrockets.
Best Bet: Joshua Van (Moneyline) +188
Section 5: Main Card & Prelim Rapid Fire Predictions
Jan Blachowicz (#5) vs. Bogdan Guskov (#11) (Light Heavyweight)
Narrative: The “Old Lion” (42 years old) vs. The “Loose Cannon.” Blachowicz is 0-2-1 in his last three. Guskov is a finisher with 15 KOs.
Analysis: Simple—Power vs. Power. Guskov starts fast (13 first-round finishes). The question is if age and injuries have finally caught Blachowicz.
Prediction: Guskov has the momentum and explosive power to overwhelm the aging veteran.
Best Bet: Bogdan Guskov (Moneyline)
Prop Bet: Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision.
Brandon Moreno (#2) vs. Tatsuro Taira (#5) (Flyweight)
Analysis: High-level grappling duel. Moreno has faced the absolute elite; Taira has impressive stats but against lower competition. Moreno’s boxing advantage (3.96 SLpM vs 2.87) and scramble experience will be the difference.
Best Bet: Brandon Moreno (Moneyline)
Henry Cejudo (#10) vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight)
Analysis: Fight IQ is key. If Cejudo strikes with the younger, longer Talbott, he loses. If Cejudo returns to his Olympic wrestling roots to nullify the reach, he wins. Expect Cejudo to wrestle to save his legacy.
Best Bet: Henry Cejudo (Moneyline)
Value Picks: Prelims
Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira: Vettori’s chin and cardio will drown Ferreira after round 1. Pick: Vettori.
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva: Barber’s aggression keeps this standing. Pick: Barber.
Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres: Dawson’s relentless wrestling is kryptonite for explosive strikers like Torres. Pick: Dawson.
Craftbet.la Best Bets Summary
This historic card is full of opportunities. Here are the strongest expert selections for UFC 323.
The Expert Confidence Parlay
Leg 1: Brandon Moreno (Moneyline)
Leg 2: Grant Dawson (Moneyline)
Why: Two favorites with clear, dominant stylistic advantages (Boxing/XP for Moreno, Wrestling for Dawson).
The High-Value Underdog
Pick: Petr Yan (+270)
Why: Odds are inflated. Dvalishvili is overworked (4th title fight of the year). Yan has the skills to capitalize on the champion’s fatigue.
Best Prop Bet
Pick: Joshua Van via KO/TKO or Decision
Why: Pantoja’s low defense vs. Van’s record-breaking volume is a recipe for an upset.
The “Don’t Blink” Bet
Pick: Blachowicz vs. Guskov – Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision
Why: Guskov is a kill-or-be-killed fighter. This ends violently.
Ready for the Action?
The T-Mobile Arena will witness history. Don’t just watch—be part of the action. Head to Craftbet.la now to find the best odds, live markets, and every option you need to capitalize on this historic card.
Bet Smart. Bet with the Expert. Bet on Craftbet.la.
